The ruling PSD-CDS coalition won just over 38 percent of the ballot, but it was insufficient for the alliance to maintain an overall majority in Parliament. Abstention, at 43.07 percent, was the highest on record.
With the entire opposition to the left of the coalition securing over 60 percent of the ballot, both the Left Bloc and the Communist Party have come out and suggested they would be willing to form a leftist majority government.
But the conditions to form such an alliance, could include the complete cancellation of austerity measures, along with Portugal’s exit from NATO and the Eurozone also an integral part of both the two smaller parties’ political ideology.
The Left Bloc doubled its number of MPs for its best ever showing since its formation two decades ago, but this would appear to be more the result of canvassing the vote from disillusioned young people unable to find employment, pensioners seeking better treatment and an end to cuts, along with its tireless battle against tolls on previously unpaid motorways. Pulling out of the euro or NATO, not often mentioned during campaigning, is perhaps less significant to the growing number of Left Bloc supporters, and could still see the party take a more moderate stance on the matter in exchange for ministerial posts in a leftist cabinet.
The Socialists have, on the other hand, consistently accused the coalition of going too far with austerity measures in the past four years, but they were the first signatories of the bailout deal, and therefore would have been in agreement with many of the cuts seen in Portugal since 2011, and might be unable to appease the Left Bloc seeking the total elimination of austerity, let alone Portugal’s withdrawal from Europe and NATO.
This Friday’s meeting between Passos Coelho and António Costa could prove crucial and even decisive, with the Socialists having already lined up a meeting with the Left Bloc on Monday morning, which will also strengthen its position around the negotiating table on Friday.
As revealed in last week’s edition of The Portugal News, a minority government will be hard-pressed to govern without making considerable concessions.
The Socialists have long argued against the freezing of pensions, opposed extraordinary taxes on wages and have called for a VAT reduction on restaurant bills.
Failure to reach agreement with the Socialists, which the coalition has understandably said they are in favour of, would see the minority government unable to pass major legislation such as the state budget for 2016.
In the event of being unable to govern, the President would usually see his hand forced and call early elections.
However, President Cavaco Silva only has three months left of his second and final term in office, and is constitutionally restricted from taking a major decision such as calling an early vote before he exits Belém in January.
While there were no clear winners in the elections, the ruling coalition was the only party to actually lose MPs, which further enhances the opposition’s negotiating hand.
The coalition saw its share of MPs drop to 104, 12 short of what would be needed to rule with a majority.
The Socialists moved up from 74 seats to 85, while the Left Bloc claimed a record 19 seats to top the Communists who elected 17.
The Party for People, Animals and Nature makes its debut in Parliament after electing one MP.
Socialist leader António Costa, who could face a challenge for his leadership at a party congress later this year depending on how events unfold in the coming weeks, seems set to keep his office at Largo do Rato.
During the past week, Costa told followers that while he understood the need for political and, by default, financial stability, he would not be “writing the coalition a blank cheque to rule.”
While several scenarios remain open, it would appear for now that the Socialists would actually aid the coalition to stay in power, at least for the next 12 months.
Both the Left Bloc and the Communist Party have already prepared motions of no confidence, which, if voted in favour of by the Socialists, would see the government removed from the front of the house in Parliament.
But the fallout from such a move, which would inevitably see increasingly confident markets grow jittery once more and see Portugal once more balancing on the verge of an economic precipice, would perhaps see the Socialists, in the very least, abstain from supporting this motion. Furthermore, the Socialists would themselves want to be the architects of a no confidence vote and not see parties to their left take credit for unseating the coalition government.
A likely scenario is, having forced the coalition to veer away from its current policy of severe austerity, the Socialists would abstain from voting for next year’s budget next month, thereby not only ensuring the country can do business as usual, but also avoid alienating its electorate if it is seen as unconditionally supporting the coalition.
The Socialists would also look to increase their share before any potential vote, as forcing an election early in 2016 could see it make little headway, or even result in sympathy votes for the government, should the opposition be seen as making governing the country impossible out of spite or mere political gain.
Back in 1987, then Prime Minister Cavaco Silva won a famous landslide victory after his minority government elected two years earlier by the smallest of margins, had been forced into a corner from where it was unable to rule.
The move by the opposition backfired spectacularly as Cavaco Silva won more than 50 percent of the vote, while the Socialists saw their votes plummet down to just 22 percent. Cavaco Silva governed pretty much uncontested for the next eight years.
It seems probable for now that the coalition will govern until the next state budget is tabled for voting next autumn. The future president elected at the beginning of next year would have full legitimacy to handle such a motion and proceed with the inevitable calling of early elections.