The same data indicates, however, that the population may increase in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon and in the Algarve.
It is estimated that the number of young people will decrease from 1.4 million to one million between 2018 and 2080, which will have an impact on birth rates.
“Even admitting increases in the synthetic fertility index, it still results in a decrease in births, motivated by the reduction of women of childbearing age, reflecting the low levels of fertility recorded in previous years”, explains INE in one of the Highlights.
The number of elderly people (over 65 years old) will increase, from 2.2 million to three million, according to the indicators evaluated by INE.
“The aging rate in Portugal will almost double, going from 159 to 300 elderly people for every 100 young people in 2080”, predicts the Institute.
The Autonomous Region of Madeira will be the most aged on that date, with this index reaching 429 elderly people for every 100 young people. The least aged will be the Algarve (204).
The working-age population (14 to 64 years old) will decrease from 6.6 million inhabitants to 4.2 million in the period under analysis.
INE notes that these projections have not yet taken into account the impact of the current Covid-19 pandemic.
They were determined based on the available data to analyze hypotheses of evolution of the demographic, fertility, mortality and migration components.
“These assumptions did not underlie the impact that the current situation determined by the Covid-19 pandemic may have on future demographic trends”, warns INE.
In any case, the information available today is considered “useful to establish a reference” to assess future developments.