In total, the excess mortality was 22% higher than the expected values ​​for that time of year.

According to Executive Digest, the country is now experiencing a prolonged period of excess mortality, recorded for 30 consecutive days. On 2 January, the country registered 540 deaths, the highest daily figure in the last two years. The same happened two days later, on 4 January, when the mark of 500 deaths was surpassed in a single day.

Compared with European figures, Portugal is the only European country with excess mortality. Data from the EuroMOMO network, cited by the newspaper Expresso, in week 52 of 2025, reveals that mortality in Portugal was considered “very high,” at a time when excess mortality was not recorded in any other European country.

Flu epidemic

In statements to the newspaper Expresso, the DGS (Directorate-General of Health) and INSA (National Institute of Health) explain that the increase in mortality may be related to the flu epidemic and the low temperatures recorded in recent weeks.

According to Executive Digest, the flu epidemic began earlier than usual, and viral transmission quickly reached the elderly population, who health authorities consider the most vulnerable. The subtype of flu virus that circulated in Portugal (H3N1) is also considered one of the deadliest. Nevertheless, Portugal recorded days of intense cold, which can impact cases of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses.

Final report pending

The year 2025 ended with 122,000 deaths in Portugal, a higher number than the 116,000 recorded in 2024. In December, 12,842 people died, according to Executive Digest, a higher number than the 10,939 recorded in the same period of the previous year. However, in light of the recorded flu epidemic, authorities are requesting that a general assessment of mortality be delayed.

The president of the National Association of Public Health Physicians, Bernardo Gomes, states that the prolonged cycle of excess mortality is unsurprising, given meteorological factors, public health issues, and an ageing population living in a country with housing shortages and high energy poverty. All these factors combined exacerbate health risks when low temperatures and high viral circulation are present.