According to the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), the depression is forecast to be positioned southwest of the Iberian Peninsula on Thursday, 19 March, with a central pressure of 983 hPa. The system is expected to move slowly southward, influencing weather conditions across the country until Sunday, 22 March.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms

Rainfall will be heavy at times, especially on 19 and 20 March, and may occasionally be accompanied by thunderstorms. The impact is expected to be strongest in the central and southern regions, although unsettled conditions may persist in the south in the following days.

The areas most at risk of intense rainfall include:

  • Coastal districts south of Cape Mondego
  • Inland areas south of the Serra da Estrela

Strong and gusty winds

Winds will initially blow from the south to southeast, gradually shifting to the east-southeast as the system evolves.

The strongest winds are expected on 19 and 20 March, particularly:

  • Along the coast south of Cape Carvoeiro and Cape Mondego
  • In higher elevations across central and southern Portugal

Wind gusts could reach up to 75 km/h along the coast and 95 km/h in highland areas. Authorities also warn that localised severe wind events may occur as instability lines pass.

Rough sea conditions

Sea conditions are expected to deteriorate significantly:

  • On the western coast south of Cape Carvoeiro (18 and 19 March), waves from the west may reach 4 to 4.5 metres.
  • On the southern Algarve coast (19 and 20 March), southeast waves of 2 to 2.5 metres are forecast.

Wave heights along the Algarve coast are expected to remain around 2 metres or slightly higher until late morning on 21 March.

Weather warnings issued

IPMA has issued yellow warnings for:

  • Heavy rainfall
  • Strong wind gusts
  • Rough sea conditions

These warnings may be updated as the situation evolves, and authorities advise the public to stay informed.

Further updates are expected later.