“The acceleration of the CPI [Consumer Price Index] is almost entirely explained by the increase in fuel prices,” the statistical institute emphasises, confirming today the preliminary estimate released at the end of last month.

Energy products

In March, the first full month after the US and Israeli attack on Iran, the variation in the index relating to energy products increased to 5.7% (-2.2% in the previous month), while the index relating to unprocessed food products registered a variation of 6.4% (6.7% in the previous month).

The underlying inflation indicator, which excludes more volatile products such as unprocessed food and energy, accelerated to 2.0%, 0.1 percentage points higher than in February.

In monthly terms, compared to February, the CPI registered a variation rate of 2.0%, which compares with 0.1% in February and 1.4% in March 2025.

As for the average variation over the last 12 months, it was 2.3%, the same value as the previous month.

In March, the Portuguese Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showed a year-on-year variation of 2.7% (2.1% in the previous month), a rate 0.2 percentage points higher than the Eurostat estimate for the euro area (in February, this difference was identical).

Year-on-year variation

Excluding unprocessed food and energy products, the HICP in Portugal registered a year-on-year variation of 2.0% in March (the same value as in February), a rate lower than that of the euro area (estimated at 2.2%).

The HICP (Index of Healthcare Percentage) recorded a monthly variation of 2.3% (0.1% in the previous month and 1.7% in March 2025), and an average over the last 12 months of 2.2% (2.1% in the preceding month).

Increase in transport prices

In an analysis by expenditure category and compared to February, the INE (National Institute of Statistics) highlights the increases in the year-on-year variation rates of "transport," as a consequence of the increase in the price of road fuels, and of "alcoholic beverages and tobacco," with variations of 3.8% and 2.9% respectively (0.6% and 2.2% in February).

Conversely, it notes the decreases in the year-on-year variation rates of the "health" and "financial and insurance services" categories, only "marginally in the latter case," with variations of 2.3% and 1.6% respectively (2.5% and 1.7% in the previous month).

Positive contributions

In March, the categories with the largest positive contributions to the year-on-year CPI variation were "food and non-alcoholic beverages," "transport," and "restaurants and accommodation services."

Conversely, only the "clothing and footwear" and "information and communication" categories had negative contributions.

Comparing to last month

Compared with the previous month, the INE points to an increased contribution to the year-on-year variation in the CPI from the "transport" category, which includes road fuels, and, conversely, to decreased contributions from the "health" and "clothing and footwear"

categories.

The category with the largest positive contribution to the 2.9% monthly variation rate of the total index was "clothing and footwear," with a variation of 21.7% (-5.1% in the previous month and 21.8% in March 2025), reflecting the usual arrival of the new clothing and footwear collection.

The contribution of the "transport" category is also noteworthy, with a variation of 2.9% (0.5% in February and -0.3% in the same month of the previous year).

The only category with a negative contribution to the monthly variation rate of the CPI was "leisure, recreation, sports and culture," with a variation of -0.2% (0.7% in the previous month and -0.6% in March 2025).