Portugal Pathways on why Portugal’s leaders need to consider fairness of Nationality Law

Recent comments from senior Catholic José Ornelas Carvalho, president of the Portuguese Episcopal Conference, have cut through the debate around the Nationality Law with unusual clarity.

“There are no half citizens,” he says, “our constitution does not provide for citizens with only half rights.”

He went further, describing elements of the debate as “not rational”.

The Nationality Law – which covers a broad range of legislation – was approved, at the second time of asking, earlier this month.

A previous government vote in its favour had seen it referred to the Constitutional Court.

It is now awaiting the President of Portugal’s seal of approval.

Among its many controversial aspects is an extension to those who have been on the pathway to citizenship.

Whether that be investors seeking a Golden Visa seeing the length of the path they embarked on being effectively doubled, or birthright citizenship.

For example, a baby born in Portugal, if the latest law is approved, will no longer get automatic citizenship if at least one of its parents had not been resident in the country for five years. Previously they did.

It creates the bizarre situation that children born before the changes will be Portuguese, but their younger offspring will likely not.

But the bishop’s comments are not simply a moral observation. It is a constitutional and economic one.

Because at stake is something far more valuable than any individual policy: Portugal’s credibility as a country that honours legitimate expectation.

Over the past decade or so, Portugal has positioned itself as one of Europe’s most attractive destinations for international families, investors, value creators and entrepreneurs.

This has not been driven by lifestyle alone, but by a clear proposition: stability, predictability, and respect for those who engage with the system in good faith.

Programmes such as the Portugal Golden Visa were built on this foundation. They offered a structured, lawful pathway and one that required commitment, capital, and patience, in return for defined outcomes.

The results have been significant.

The Golden Visa programme has contributed an estimated €54 billion in wider economic impact and supported more than 30,000 jobs, directly and indirectly.

This spans construction, urban regeneration, investment funds, and professional services, a broad ecosystem that has helped strengthen Portugal’s economic resilience.

But the real success has been reputational despite its struggles with bureaucracy and failings in its processing of applications through its immigration agency, AIMA .

Portugal has become known as a country where grandfathering rules were applied logically and where those rules were fair and never retroactively applied.

To introduce further uncertainty now, particularly around nationality outcomes or the retroactive application of new interpretations, risks eroding some of that.

And perception matters.

In a global market, capital is not emotional. It is comparative.

Investors assess jurisdictions based on legal certainty, policy continuity, and institutional reliability. If those pillars weaken, capital does not protest but starts to shift its thinking.

Portugal is not competing in isolation. Other jurisdictions across the world are actively positioning themselves to attract the same globally mobile capital. In that context, trust is not an abstract concept. It is a competitive advantage.

At the heart of this debate lies the principle of legitimate expectation which is a cornerstone of any functioning legal system.

When a state invites individuals to invest and engage under a defined framework, there is a reasonable expectation that the rules will not be fundamentally altered to their detriment after the fact.

As Paul Stannard, founder of Portugal Pathways and the Portugal Investment Owners Club, puts it: “International families are not asking for special treatment they are asking for clarity and consistency.

“If they just said the clock starts ticking on the day your application went in, it would be fair, as the immigration backlog is a result of failings in the system.

“By all means, move it to 10 years moving forward, but do the right thing by those affected by delays in receiving their residency cards through no fault of their own.”

Bishop José Ornelas is right to highlight that there are no “half citizens”. But the broader message is equally important.

There should be no half-promises.

At a time when trust is the most valuable currency in global investment, Portugal must be careful not to undermine the very foundation of its success.

Because in a competitive world, credibility and fairness is not just an advantage; it’s something people hold and is part of why Portuguese people rightly are known for being warm and welcoming.