These are legitimate debates, but perhaps we remain too focused on the symptoms while avoiding tackling the central problem: Portugal does not build enough houses to meet the needs of the population.

A recent study by Morningstar DBRS puts clear numbers on this reality. Since 2014, Portugal has accumulated a deficit of more than 300 thousand homes, when comparing the formation of new households with the number of completed houses. At the same time, prices have practically doubled since 2019 and grew by 19% in 2025 alone.

The study admits that some of the factors that strongly boosted demand may lose strength. Immigration may slow down, access to finance has become more demanding, interest rates have risen, and the deterioration in affordability itself is driving many families away from buying homes. All of this may moderate demand. But there is a problem: the supply will probably continue to be unable to keep up with the country's needs.

This is where we should focus the discussion. Portugal faces a lack of construction workers, high costs of materials and labor, scarcity of land prepared to build and too slow planning and licensing processes. These are structural limitations that do not disappear with a new tax measure or new purchase support.

We, real estate professionals, must also make some self-criticism. For too long we have celebrated record prices as clear signs of success. I myself, having followed this market for many years, believe that we must recognize that continuously rising prices do not necessarily represent a healthy market when an increasing part of the population is no longer able to buy or rent a house.

This does not mean that Portugal is facing a new bubble similar to the past crisis. DBRS considers it premature to talk about a housing bubble and highlights a fundamental difference: the current cycle has not been fueled by a huge accumulation of household debt. The debt-to-disposable income ratio fell from approximately 100% between 2008 and 2012 to around 50% in 2025.

Therefore, we do not need alarmism. We need realism.

Housing is no longer just a social or real estate issue. It is a question of economic competitiveness. Companies will find it difficult to attract workers to regions where they cannot find housing. Universities will lose talent if students do not have housing. Young people will continue to postpone their independence and the formation of new families.

Portugal needs public and private investment, greater coordination between municipalities, faster and more predictable decision-making processes and different housing models. We need buying, renting, affordable housing and new solutions. There is no single answer to a deficit accumulated over so many years.

But there is one certainty: "without increasing supply, we will only continue to redistribute scarcity."

The real risk for Portugal is not that house prices may one day go down. It is that we continue for another decade to discuss prices without building the missing houses.