Coronavirus peak expected around 14 April

in News · 27-03-2020 01:00:00 · 6 Comments
Coronavirus peak expected around 14 April

The President of the Republic has said that there is “a more moderate curve” of propagation of Covid-19 in Portugal and that the peak “may be shortly after 14 April”.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa spoke to journalists after participating in a technical session on the epidemiological situation of Covid-19 in Portugal, at the invitation of the Prime Minister, António Costa, in the auditorium of Infarmed - National Authority for Medicines and Health Products, in Lisbon .
Asked if the experts intend to keep the forecast of 14 April as the date for the peak of the epidemiological curve in Portugal, the head of state noted that “it is not possible to make certain predictions” and compared the Covid-19 pandemic to “a spring” that you are trying to contain with “very firm pressure”.
”There has been, with this pressure on the spring, a result that is visible in the numbers: the growth is less exponential, less marked than expected. This naturally means that the pressure on the health system is less, the number of those contaminated has not grown to the level expected and the peak may shift “, he explained.
”It is a more moderate curve, and the peak, the stabilisation moment, which lasts for a while, may be a little after 14 April,” he added.
According to the President of the Republic, “the Portuguese people are helping to make the curve different from the curve of other countries, comparing the number, not only of contaminated cases, but also of interned, and interned in intensive care, and also the number of deaths recorded so far”.
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, added that other countries are looking “with great interest” at Portugal in relation to Covid-19, specifically in the treatment of infected people at home and in the capacity of system response.

Rebelo de Sousa replied to journalists after being asked if he has been in contact with other heads of state from affected countries, at the end of a session in the auditorium of Infarmed - National Authority for Medicines and Health Products, in Lisbon, which lasted more than three hours, about the “Epidemiological situation of Covid-19 in Portugal”, an initiative of the Government, which also included the presence of the Prime Minister, António Costa, party leaders, employers’ confederations and union structures.
”It is possible to verify this idea: we are facing a global pandemic with a very clear European impact. Even those who at some point came to think that this could be from some countries, some societies and not all, are beginning to understand and take action even when they are at a later stage of the process “, he pointed out.
According to Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, other countries “look at the Portuguese case with great interest because the Portuguese case has already taken into account the lessons of other cases which started earlier and can serve as an example in what they want to do in the future”.
The President of the Republic gave the example of “the fact that infected people are being treated at home” in Portugal, since “there were other country experiences that followed different paths”.
”Another example is also the form of restraint that has allowed, with the enormous dedication of the health professionals, a dimension and a response capacity, which is being adjusted, of the health system. And they are learning from it”, he added.
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa confirmed that he maintained contact “with heads of state in very different situations, such as in the Baltics or Eastern Europe”.
”They are different because the outbreak started later in several of them and has had a lower incidence for reasons of population size and the composition of that population. A population, in many cases, younger on average than the Portuguese population or even the Italian population, which is older than ours “, he explained.
The new Coronavirus, responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic, has already infected more than 386,000 people worldwide, of whom about 17,000 have died.
Portugal began a state of emergency from 12pm on Thursday, 19 March which runs until 11.59pm on 2 April and could potentially be extended.



Comments:

We were in Portugal most of January, and were so deeply impressed by the country and it’s people. We’re heartened by the response taken there and the success that it appears to be reaping. We wish we could have done the same here in New York and in the USA more generally. Wishing you all the best.

by Daniel Danza from USA on 31-03-2020 01:50:00

Come on Portugal, you can do it!!!!!!!!Stay united, white, black, male, female, left, right and green! Stay strong!

Portugal Strong!

by Nelson from USA on 30-03-2020 08:56:00

Hi Eric, i agree, what is your R0 Rate in your Model?

by ardr from Lisbon on 30-03-2020 04:17:00

This message that the curve will peak round 14th of April has no support from facts. Just wishes from the president.

I have a model of the spreading. With parameters tuned to match numbers so far. Is shows a peak in end of May, early June.
With numbers you can imagine.
We have only seen a very little beginning yet.

=
Without and model. Some basic math:
20% increase per day during 40 days will give 1000 times increase.
Thousands will be millions
=

Nobody knows for sure. But time will tell.
So same this statement from the president until June.
And check it.

by Erik Eriksson from Algarve on 28-03-2020 12:12:00

Good desi son sir please help you everyparson social & financial support you Thankyou

by MohammadFarhad from Lisbon on 27-03-2020 06:58:00

My wife & I left the Algarve on the 24th March using the last Ryanair flight to Stansted. We would like to congratulate the Powers that be for the fast response to Covid 19. Although as Campervanners visiting Portugal there was confusion last week when we were all told to leave & a few hours later told we could stay on the site. We think Portugal & especially the "population" were very quick to respond. We saw no panic from anyone, & businesses set up precautionary measures very quickly to protect everyone. Although we are home & have no signs of the virus yet we hope we are clear of it. We are now isolating ourselves at home & hope to stay free from it. We thank every one in Portugal for their quick reaction to Covid 19 & hope to see all our friends in Armacao de Pera safe & well next winter. Regards R & D Halliday.

by Roger Halliday from UK on 27-03-2020 03:34:00
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