Economic activity moderated in the second half of last year as global trade growth slowed, uncertainty sapped confidence and output in some Member States was adversely affected by temporary domestic factors, such as disruptions in car production, social tensions and fiscal policy uncertainty. As a result, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in both the euro area and the EU likely slipped to 1.9 percent in 2018, down from 2.4 percent in 2017 (Autumn Forecast: 2.1 percent for EU28 and euro area).


Economic momentum at the start of this year was subdued, but the fundamentals remain sound. Economic growth will continue, albeit more moderately.


The European economy is set to continue to benefit from improving labour market conditions, favourable financing conditions and a slightly expansionary fiscal stance. Euro area GDP is now forecast to grow by 1.3 percent in 2019 and 1.6 percent in 2020 (Autumn Forecast: 1.9 percent in 2019; 1.7 percent in 2020).


The EU GDP growth forecast has also been revised down to 1.5 percent in 2019 and 1.7 percent in 2020 (Autumn Forecast: 1.9 percent in 2019; 1.8 percent in 2020).


Among the larger Member States, downward revisions for growth in 2019 were sizeable for Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. Many Member States continue to benefit from robust domestic demand, also supported by EU funds.


Consumer price inflation in the euro area fell towards the end of 2018 due to a sharp drop in energy prices and lower food price inflation. Core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food prices, was muted throughout the year, despite faster wage growth. Overall inflation (HICP) averaged 1.7 percent in 2018, up from 1.5 percent in 2017.


With oil price assumptions for this year and next year now lower than in autumn, euro area inflation is forecast to moderate to 1.4 percent in 2019 before picking up mildly to 1.5 percent in 2020. For the EU, inflation is forecast to average 1.6 percent this year and then pick up to 1.8 percent in 2020.


A high level of uncertainty surrounds the economic outlook and the projections are subject to downside risks.

Trade tensions, which have been weighing on sentiment for some time, have alleviated somewhat but remain a concern. China’s economy may be slowing more sharply than anticipated and global financial markets and many emerging markets are vulnerable to abrupt changes in risk sentiment and growth expectations. For the EU, the “Brexit” process remains a source of uncertainty.


In the light of the process of withdrawal of the UK from the EU, projections for 2019 and 2020 are based on a purely technical assumption of status quo in terms of trading patterns between the EU27 and the UK.


This is for forecasting purposes only and has no bearing on the process underway in the context of Article 50.