“DBRS Morningstar expects 2022 to be neutral for European home prices and modestly positive for mortgage performance”, says the report “European Structured Finance Outlook 2022”.
The agency notes that, in the last two years of the global recession caused by the pandemic, house prices in the main markets continued to rise, while stating that they hope that in 2022 they will remain “stable” in Europe.
The report notes that the rise in house prices has led to concern whether another price bubble is emerging, exemplifying that in the eurozone they recorded an increase of 6.8% and in the European Union of 7.3% in the second quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter of 2020.
However, it also highlights that the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands had a year-on-year increase of 10.5% to 13%, Spain, Ireland, France and Portugal registered a lower, but still stable, growth in the prices of 3.3%, 5.6%, and 6.6%, respectively.
Italy, for the first time in years, had a moderate increase of 0.4% year on year.
DBRS identifies that the main risk for the increase in housing prices is “a potential increase in interest rates”, with an impact on the increase in mortgages and on financing capacity.