If transactions increased, it was concluded that the market was strong. If prices rose, it was assumed that demand remained robust. If credit became more expensive, a more evident break was expected. But the current reality no longer allows such linear readings.

In recent days, various data and analyses seem to point in different directions. The average house price reached new highs in the first quarter of 2026, while the number of transactions slowed down. Foreign buyers have reduced their presence, but domestic buyers continue to sustain much of the activity. Rents in Lisbon stabilise and in Porto even fall slightly, while access to housing continues to be one of the country's biggest social concerns.

At first glance, all this seems contradictory. In fact, it is perhaps just the best proof that the Portuguese real estate market has matured and become much more complex.

Today, there is no longer a single real estate market. There are several markets operating at the same time. The market for the first home is different from the investment market. Renting does not respond to the same stimuli as buying. Lisbon does not live the same reality as Porto, the Algarve or the interior. The premium segment is not affected in the same way as the middle class. And the national demand no longer explains, on its own, everything that happens in the sector.

That is why two seemingly opposite pieces of news may be correct. There may be prices at highs and, at the same time, lower purchasing capacity. There may be more rental supply, and even so, rents that are too high for many households. There may be fewer purchases by foreigners and, at the same time, strong pressure on urban centres. The market has ceased to behave as a single block.

The biggest risk, in my opinion, is that we continue to look for a simple conclusion to a reality that is no longer simple. When you turn a statistic into an absolute explanation, you lose context. And without context, the market is easily misunderstood.

This does not mean ignoring the problems. Housing remains a structural challenge. Supply remains insufficient in the segments where it is most needed. Young people and the middle class continue to face enormous difficulties in entering the market. But we also cannot reduce everything to a single narrative of crisis or success.

Portuguese real estate is going through a phase of adjustment, sophistication and greater segmentation. This requires more analysis, more rigour, and fewer hasty conclusions.

Because the market is not necessarily contradictory.

He is just showing that he no longer lives on certainties.