In the summer interim forecasts released on 7 July, the community executive downwardly revised the already gloomy macroeconomic projections for the whole of the Eurozone and the EU as a whole, but is particularly more pessimistic towards Portugal, as it aggravates the projection of recession by three percentage points, only partially offset in 2021 with a growth of 6.0 percent (in this case slightly more optimistic than the 5.8 percent anticipated in the spring).

The community executive now expects a contraction in Portugal above the average for the Euro area (-8.7 percent) and the EU (-8.3 percent), when two months ago he estimated it to be below, anticipating a fall in the Portuguese economy of 6.8 percent, against 7.7 percent in the single currency area and 7.6 percent in all 27 Member States.

“With confinement starting to decline in May, economic activity is slowly resuming, but for many companies, such as airlines and hotels, it is expected to remain well below the levels recorded before the pandemic for a long period. The GDP should therefore decline 9.8 percent in 2020, before recovering around 6 percent in 2021”, points out the Commission, which also warns of risks mainly on the negative side, “due to the strong impact of foreign tourism”, sector “where uncertainties in the medium term remain significant”.