In the October Economic Bulletin, the institution led by Mário Centeno only presents forecasts for this year, but points out the impact in 2023 of the slowdown in economic growth recorded from the second quarter onwards.
“The negative effects of Russian military aggression in Ukraine were accentuated throughout the year, implying a relative stabilisation of activity from the second quarter onwards. These effects will be more noticeable in 2023, anticipating a significant deceleration compared to 2022, with a knock-on effect of more than 3.9 pp. [percentage points] to 0.5 pp”, reads the report.
However, for this year the growth forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is revised upwards by 0.4 pp. compared to June to 6.7%, with the Portuguese economy “benefiting from the recovery of tourism and private consumption”.