In the 2023 economic outlook update report, the OECD points to a reduction in the inflation rate from 8.1% in 2022 to 5.7% in 2023, before falling to 3.3% in 2024, as energy and food prices stabilise.

These projections compare with the 6.6% for this year and the 2.4% for 2024 predicted in the report released in November.

Among the main economic institutions, the Public Finance Council (CFP) points to an inflation of 5.9%, the Bank of Portugal (BdP) 5.5%, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 5.7% and the Ministry of Finance and the European Commission of 5.1%.

With regard to 'core' inflation, the OECD forecasts a rate of 4.7% this year and 3.4% in 2024.

The Paris-based institution notes that “the budgetary measures will provide some compensation to support the income of vulnerable households, but will slow down the decline in inflation”.

The OECD also predicts that the deficit will fall from 0.4% in 2022 to 0.1% this year and in 2024, while the Government points to a budget deficit of 0.4% this year and 0.1% in 2024.