For Brussels, "domestic demand should continue to drive economic growth in Portugal, despite uncertainty in global trade," according to the autumn economic forecasts released today.

These forecasts are more pessimistic than those of the government, which has included in the State Budget for 2026 growth of 2% this year and 2.3% next year.

For this year, the European Commission revised upwards its May forecast from 1.8% to 1.9%, while maintaining its forecast of 2.2% in 2026. For 2027, Brussels estimates growth of 2.1%.

The revision comes after the preliminary estimate for the third quarter of 2025 showed an expansion of 0.8 %, boosted by the pension bonus and the adjustment to the personal income tax withholding tables paid in August and September, which "stimulated consumer demand".

"Private consumption also benefited from a steady increase in employment and wages, along with lower interest rates on loans to households," notes Brussels, adding that investment "showed strong growth, reflecting a sharp recovery in the construction sector in the second quarter of 2025."

On the other hand, export growth slowed substantially due to global trade tensions and uncertainties and "foreign tourism decelerated after several years of strong performance, while domestic tourism continued to grow at a fast pace," it concludes.

For the coming years, the Commission predicts that private consumption will continue to grow at a steady pace, with rising household income and a gradual decline in the savings rate.

"Investment is expected to grow even faster than private consumption in 2025 and 2026, when the use of funds from the Recovery and Resilience Plan reaches its peak," it reads.

Imports, meanwhile, are expected to continue to grow faster than exports, "although the growth gap is expected to narrow from 2026 onwards," says Brussels.