“The successive tariff policies of the current US Administration, including the recent negotiation that determined a 15% tariff on goods from the European Union (EU), open a chapter of uncertainty in trade relations between countries,” the study points out. “The introduction of this additional cost has the potential to reduce the volume of EU exports to the United States of America (USA), with effects also on the Portuguese economy,” it adds.

The study considers, in addition to the exposure of national sectors that export directly to the US, also those that sell products used in the value chain of these exports, whether from Portugal or other European Union countries. It also takes into account the added value and national employment generated by exports and their respective production chains.

The conclusion is that “2.1% of production, 1.3% of GDP and 1.3% of employment in Portugal depend on exports of goods to the US”, both through Portuguese exports and their intersectoral relations, and through exports from other EU countries that depend on supplies from sectors of the Portuguese economy.

Risks

The study also assesses the “risk in the face of a possible reduction in EU exports to the US” from different sectors. Textiles, despite being the second largest national exporter, is the most exposed, with approximately €400 million in added value and 14,000 jobs dependent on sales to the other side of the North Atlantic.

In second place is the "metal products, excluding equipment" industry, with a net contribution of almost €200 million and more than five thousand associated jobs. Of these jobs, 40% result from indirect national and indirect effects from other EU countries.

The "wholesale trade, excluding automobiles" sector appears as the third most exposed to exports to the US, with approximately 200 million euros. This is due to the fact that it is a sector with "significant dependence on exports to the US through indirect linkages".

The sector that exports the most to the US, "petroleum derivatives", accounting for 30% of sales to Donald Trump's country, actually has a "residual" contribution to GDP and employment. “This is due, on the one hand, to the fact that the main raw material – oil – is entirely imported and, on the other hand, to the capital-intensive nature of the sector, with a reduced capacity to generate direct jobs,” explains the study conducted for PLANAPP by economists Diogo Sousa (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra), Vicente Ferreira (University of Rome “La Sapienza”), and João Pedro Ferreira (University of Virginia, USA).

Employment

In terms of employment dependence, essentially indirectly, the “security, research, and administrative support activities” stand out, with approximately 3,600 jobs, as does agriculture, with around 3,000 jobs.

“In the specific case of agriculture, although only a small part of the production is directly exported to the USA – and therefore potentially subject to tariffs – the most significant impact would occur indirectly, through the supply of goods and services to the national and European industry that exports to the North American market,” clarifies the study.

The weight of the US in Portuguese exports of goods reached a maximum in absolute value terms (5,244 billion euros) in 2024, corresponding to approximately 1.9% of GDP, 6.7% of total exports and 23.2% of trade in goods with countries outside the EU.