The WMO stated in a press release that "sea surface temperatures are rising rapidly" in the equatorial Pacific, indicating a likely return of conditions characteristic of the global climate phenomenon.

The WMO stated, "Forecasts point to a widespread prevalence of above-average land surface temperatures in the upcoming quarter, coupled with regional precipitation variations."

"Following a period of neutral conditions earlier in the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is great confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the following months," said the WMO's Climate Prediction Officer, quoted in the press release.

Wilfran Moufouma Okia states that, although models indicate it could be "a strong event," the so-called "spring predictability barrier represents a challenge to the certainty of forecasts at this time of year, and that "confidence in forecasts generally improves after April."

Characterised by warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and twelve months.

"El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a major global climate pattern," explains the WMO.

"They transform climate worldwide, affecting rainfall, droughts, and extreme events in numerous regions." Accurate, timely ENSO forecasts help anticipate and mitigate risks.

El Niño affects temperature and precipitation patterns in different regions and generally has a warming effect on the global climate, being “typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, and drought in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia.”

“During the boreal summer, the warm waters of El Niño can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific, while hindering hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin,” according to the WMO.

The United Nations meteorological agency notes, however, that “each El Niño event is unique in terms of its evolution, spatial pattern, and impacts.”

The WMO states that, although there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of events, "it can amplify the associated impacts," given that "a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events, such as heat waves and heavy rainfall."