Reports from the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect parts of the country until around Thursday, particularly across the North and Centre. Some of these storms could be locally heavy, but they are forecast to become increasingly isolated before giving way to more stable summer weather.

While the rain may provide temporary relief from the recent spell of hot weather, forecasters say it is unlikely to reverse the gradual return of dry conditions that has characterised much of the year. As high pressure re-establishes itself over the Iberian Peninsula, sunshine is expected to become more widespread, and temperatures will begin rising again in many regions.

The greatest likelihood of showers remains in inland areas of the North and Centre, where warmer daytime temperatures can trigger afternoon thunderstorms. Southern Portugal, including much of the Algarve and Alentejo, is expected to remain largely dry throughout the week.

Dry conditions continue despite recent rainfall

Although recent showers have helped dampen vegetation in some areas, Portugal continues to experience a predominantly dry pattern. One important point often overlooked is that short-lived thunderstorms contribute relatively little to replenishing reservoirs or groundwater, as intense rainfall is more likely to run off dry ground than soak into it.

This means that despite periods of unsettled weather, concerns over drought conditions could continue through the summer if sustained rainfall fails to materialise.

The longer-term outlook from IPMA also points towards above-average temperatures across Portugal during July, particularly in the interior North and Centre, while no strong signal suggests wetter-than-normal conditions over the coming weeks.

Elevated wildfire risk likely to persist

The return of warmer, drier weather also means wildfire conditions are expected to remain a concern. Even after rainfall, vegetation can dry rapidly during periods of high temperatures, low humidity and moderate winds.

Authorities continue to advise residents and visitors to remain cautious, particularly when carrying out outdoor activities that could pose a fire risk.

For those planning holidays or outdoor events, the week is expected to finish with increasingly settled conditions across most of mainland Portugal. However, travellers in northern and central inland regions should continue to monitor local forecasts for the possibility of isolated thunderstorms during the first half of the week.