Forecasts from the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), reveal that the first half of the week will remain relatively unstable, particularly across northern and central inland areas, where daytime heating may trigger isolated downpours and thunderstorms.

By the weekend, however, high pressure is forecast to strengthen over the Iberian Peninsula, bringing a more settled weather pattern and a gradual rise in temperatures across much of mainland Portugal.

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The warmest conditions are expected in the south and interior, while coastal areas should remain slightly cooler under the influence of Atlantic breezes.

Inland areas most likely to see rain

Although sunshine is expected to become more widespread, forecasters say the atmosphere will remain unstable enough for isolated showers to develop over mountainous and inland regions, especially during the afternoon and evening.

The Algarve is forecast to remain largely dry, while parts of the North and Centre have the greatest chance of seeing brief but locally heavy rainfall.

Dry conditions remain a concern

While the return of showers may offer temporary relief in some areas, experts note that isolated summer thunderstorms do little to reverse long-term drought conditions. Heavy downpours often run off dry ground rather than replenishing reservoirs and groundwater supplies, meaning water shortages can persist despite short periods of rain.

According to the latest IPMA drought monitoring, large parts of southern Portugal continue to experience below-average rainfall over recent months, with water management remaining a priority as summer progresses. Although reservoir levels improved following rainfall earlier this year, authorities continue to monitor conditions closely as temperatures rise.

Warm weather returns for the weekend

Temperatures are expected to climb steadily from Friday, with many inland areas forecast to exceed 30°C, while parts of the Alentejo and inland Algarve could experience significantly higher values if the current forecast holds.

The combination of warmer weather and dry vegetation is also expected to increase the risk of wildfires in some parts of the country. The National Authority for Emergency and Civil Protection continues to advise caution with outdoor activities that could ignite fires, particularly during the hottest part of the day.

For residents and visitors planning outdoor activities this weekend, conditions are expected to become increasingly favourable. However, those travelling in northern and central Portugal should continue to check local forecasts, as isolated thunderstorms can develop quickly during the afternoon.