According to a first provisional estimate of the national accounts presented by the INE, the 2.3% year-on-year growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from January to March benefited from a "positive contribution from domestic demand," with investment accelerating.

Regarding the dynamics of foreign trade and the contribution of exports to the evolution of the economy in annual terms, the INE data indicate that "net external demand registered a more negative contribution, with a more pronounced acceleration in imports of goods and services than in exports of goods and services."

In 2025, GDP grew 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, followed by variations of 1.7% in the second, 2.2% in the third, and 1.9% in the fourth, before registering growth of 2.3% in the period from January to March 2026.

Regarding the chain-linked economic trajectory – from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first of this year – the IBGE's statistical summary shows that GDP "registered zero variation in volume, after growth of 0.9% from October to December 2025.

In the chain-linked GDP reading, the contribution of net external demand reflects "a recovery in imports of goods and services that is more significant than in exports of goods and services," the INE says.

Conversely, "the contribution of domestic demand became positive, with a significant acceleration in investment, while private consumption slowed down," indicates the statistical institute.

The data released on 30 April correspond to a provisional estimate. The detailed results are public on 29 May.

The quick estimate includes “new primary information, including international trade statistics for goods for the 4th quarter of 2025”, which “did not imply revisions to the annual and chain growth rates of GDP, published in the edition of the quarterly national accounts by institutional sector of 26 March 2026”, explains the INE.