In its projections for the Portuguese economy for the period to 2019, released in Lisbon, the central bank is more optimistic above all for this year, having increased its forecast growth rate from the 1.4% it was projecting back in December.

The estimate is also above the 1.5% in the 2017 state budget, but Portugal's minister of finance, Mário Centeno, said earlier at an event in London that the government may revise that projection to “something close to 2%” in the Stability Programme that it is to submit to Brussels at the end of April.

For the next two years, the Bank of Portugal raised its growth projections to 1.7% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019, up 0.2 of a point and 0.1 of a point respectively from its last estimates.

Nevertheless, in a statement, the institution notes that the “pace of growth is slower than necessary to restart the process of real convergence [of Portugal's economy] with the euro area" and notes that "at the end of the period of the projection, GDP is at a level close to that recorded in 2008."

According to the Bank of Portugal, expected long-term growth will be driven by "strong growth" in exports – reflecting a favourable global outlook and the maintenance of gains that Portugal has made in terms of market share – and in a shift in internal demand back towards capital spending.

It goes so far as to stress that export success "has been one of the most remarkable aspects of the adjustment process of the Portuguese economy, fostering a ... reorientation of productive resources to sectors [that are] more exposed to international competition”.

It estimates that in 2019, in real terms, Portugal will be exporting 60% more than it did in 2008. Over the three-year period in review, it estimates, the country will manage to maintain a surplus, so enabling it to finance its deficits - “a very important characteristic of the recovery process underway”.

For inflation, the Bank of Portugal projects 1.6% this year, 1.5% next and the same in 2019.