“It is likely that in the coming months, until November 2022, warmer and drier conditions than usual will occur in the Western Euro-Mediterranean region. In some areas of the Iberian Peninsula, drier than usual conditions are expected for the next three months”, indicates the European Commission’s Joint Research Center in an updated report on the assessment of the drought situation in Europe.

In the document, based on data and analysis from the European Drought Observatory, Brussels anticipates that “for most of Europe, after a long string of unusually dry forecasts, they are expected to approach normal conditions between August and October 2022”, which will allow “the alleviation of the critical conditions of many European regions and affected sectors”.

Iberian situation

But this is not the reality of the Iberian Peninsula, as the Joint Research Center estimates “weather conditions are drier than normal in western Spain and eastern Portugal”, as well as in the entire western Euro-Mediterranean region, where “some risks may persist”.

Regarding Portugal, the document notes that, in the country, “hydroelectric energy stored in water reservoirs is less than half the average of the previous five years”.

“The state of water storage for irrigation is getting worse and all the reservoirs have shrunk. In most cases, water storage is expected to be sufficient to complete the crop irrigation cycle, but around 25 percent of reservoirs are in significant deficit and may not meet irrigation needs”.

In addition, “the danger of forest fires is high to extreme in most parts” of Portugal, he adds.

Worst drought in 500 years

According to European experts, the current drought could be the worst in at least 500 years.

“The severe drought that has affected many regions of Europe since the beginning of the year has been expanding and worsening since the beginning of August. Dry conditions are linked to a widespread and persistent lack of precipitation combined with a string of heat waves starting in May”.

The document also notes that among the regions most affected by negative rainfall anomalies between June and August are central and southern Portugal, Spain, southern France, central Italy, southern Germany, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

The Iberian Peninsula suffered a prolonged heat wave in the first half of July 2022, leading to above-average long-term temperatures for the same month, and high temperatures are still being recorded.