In the survey of consumer expectations by the European Central Bank (ECB) for October, respondents anticipate a 3% rise in housing prices over the next 12 months, a rate lower than that of 3.4% that was predicted in September.

The study shows that citizens expect the growth in the value of their property to be 3% in the following 12 months. That is, there is less optimism, anticipating a slowdown in the real estate market since consumers pointed to a 3.4% rise in house prices in September.

Europeans also expect mortgage interest rates to continue to rise. They point to a rate of 4.7% in 2023, equivalent to an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the beginning of 2022, according to the survey.

“The perception of access to credit by both consumers in the last 12 months and the expectations of access to credit in the next 12 months have significantly decreased”, says the ECB. Despite this, the share of consumers who claim to have applied for credit in the last three months increased to 13.9% in October from 12.2% in July.

In September, the ECB pointed to a drop of up to 9% in house prices over the next two years, as a result of the rise in interest rates on mortgage loans. This is because “the dynamics of the real estate market is very sensitive to mortgage rates”, explained the economists who signed the article published in the most recent “Economic Bulletin” of the European regulator.

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