In March 2026, year-on-year inflation rose to 2.7%, a considerable jump from the 2.1% recorded in February, driven almost exclusively by the energy price shock.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the energy sector soared to 5.8% year-on-year, reversing the negative trend of previous months and accounting for more than 50% of the overall inflation increase in the country.

Despite volatility in fuel and electricity prices, underlying inflation, which excludes energy products and unprocessed food, remained relatively contained at 2.0% in March, up from 1.9% in February.

This stability at the base of the indicator suggests that, for now, the contagion to other sectors of the economy is limited, although experts warn of future risks.

Whether this rise in the CPI persists in the coming months will now depend solely on the evolution of geopolitical developments and the duration of the conflict, which remains the main factor of uncertainty for price stability in Portugal and the Eurozone.