“The Commission notes that Portugal risks significantly exceeding the maximum growth in net expenditure foreseen in the Council recommendation approving the medium-term plan,” the EU executive stated in its opinion on the 2026 State Budget (OE2026), as part of the autumn package of the European Semester released today.

According to the European Commission, in cumulative terms, i.e., in relation to the base year of 2023, Portugal's net expenditure is estimated to increase by 26% in 2026, a value higher than the maximum cumulative growth rate of 23.4% recommended by the Council of the European Union, and equivalent to a cumulative deviation of 0.7% from Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also above the ceiling of 0.6% that takes into account a relaxation of EU tax rules.