In a hearing before the Budget, Finance and Public Administration Committee, in response to a request submitted by the PS parliamentary group on the evolution of net primary expenditure and compliance with the trajectory agreed with European institutions, the Minister argued that Portugal is not at risk of non-compliance at this time.

"Portugal complies with the budgetary rules; it is not at risk of having an EDP [excessive deficit procedure] if parliament acts more responsibly than it has in the past," he pointed out.

This is because part of the growth in net expenditure was due to measures approved by parliament, the Minister argued.

Miranda Sarmento further clarified that the trajectory "is an indicator, not a fiscal rule; the control account is, and it states that each Member State cannot have a deviation from the trajectory greater than 0.3 percentage points (pp) of GDP in the year and 0.6 pp cumulatively."

Even so, there is an escape clause that states that if the fiscal balance is not greater than a deficit of 0.5% of GDP, even if Portugal does not comply with the control account, an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) will not be opened.

The government's plan submitted to the European Commission foresees a deviation of 0.3 pp and a zero balance this year.

The government has revised its forecast for economic growth downwards in 2026 from 2.3% to 2% and, instead of a surplus of 0.1% in public accounts, it forecasts a zero balance, according to projections submitted.

In the 2026 Annual Progress Report (APR), published by the European Commission on 30 April of this year, the executive branch outlines the country's medium-term budget plan and updates economic projections for this year, anticipating that the economy will grow 0.3 percentage points less than predicted in October 2025 when it presented the 2026 State Budget (OE2026).