This study, with analysis from the training period to the final of the competition, estimates that Portuguese participation in the tournament will generate at least €378 million if Portugal is eliminated in the group stage, a figure that could rise to €561 million if they reach the round of 16 and reach €945 million in a scenario of an unprecedented world title win.

"These values ​​are born from small, everyday decisions people make. Whether we watch the games at home, eat appetisers, and have a few beers. Or we go to restaurants and terraces, buy shirts, scarves, or join this sticker craze. People subscribe to channels, brands invest in advertising, even the small fraction that takes a plane to the United States," explained Daniel Sá, executive director of IPAM, in an interview with the Lusa news agency.

Digital economy

In addition to these factors, the digital economy has seen the greatest progress in the football ecosystem since the 2022 edition, with streaming platforms, social media interactions and user-generated content now accounting for 23% of the total 'pie'. "In the 1966 World Cup, with Eusébio, we could listen to the radio, read the news, and watch the first TV broadcasts. Sixty years later, we consume the World Cup in real time, all the time, across multiple platforms and with every detail. This new way of consuming football has a very significant impact on the Portuguese economy," argued Daniel Sá, executive director of IPAM, in an interview with the Lusa news agency.

Relocation of economic impact

This structural transformation, which removes the relevance of traditional consumption, even though it remains predominant, leads to a relocation of the economic impact, which ceases to reside in the territory where the event takes place, which entails challenges for Portugal in retaining revenue from the 2030 World Cup, of which it is one of the three host countries.

"When we look four years from now and think about holograms, augmented reality, and artificial intelligence, we have an even more powerful possibility of maximising this return, which is not limited to tourists who come to sleep in our hotels and eat in our restaurants," he highlighted.

Impact of Cristiano Ronaldo

Another factor to consider is the 'Cristiano Ronaldo brand,' given that this may be the Al-Nassr striker's last World Cup appearance, which has an "undeniable" impact across various dimensions of Portuguese reality, according to the expert.

"The Cristiano Ronaldo 'brand' has a very strong weight, it's undeniable. He is worth more, in terms of brand, than the rest of the national team combined. I'm not referring to the sporting point of view, solely and exclusively to the brand. It is expected that Ronaldo will no longer compete in 2030, but it seems to me that, if it is his will and that of the Portuguese Football Federation itself, he will be very present at the 2030 World Cup, even without playing," he analysed.

Being the largest edition of the competition ever, with 48 participating teams and 104 games, the possibilities for revenue generation multiply, but the overload of the calendar may generate an oversupply and a consequent saturation of the market, believes Daniel Sá.

"We've seen this problem with the physical and mental health of athletes, many of them playing 50 to 60 games a year. Science shows that we are already exceeding what is considered healthy. From the user's point of view, it's exactly the same. I would say that having live games practically 365 days a year creates a risk of saturation and can lead to burnout and disinterest," he reflected.