After two years of very significant increases, with growth above 10% per year, house prices are expected to slow down. Projections point to an appreciation of around 7% this year, with a gradual deceleration in the following years. Even so, Portugal will continue to be among the fastest-growing markets in Europe. This tells us two important things: the cycle remains positive, but it has entered a more mature phase.

Stability comes from structural factors. The supply remains limited. Less is being built than necessary, and regulatory hurdles, labour shortages and construction costs continue to constrain the sector's responsiveness. As long as this imbalance persists, prices are unlikely to suffer abrupt corrections.

On the demand side, there are also no signs of immediate fragility. The labour market has shown resilience, unemployment remains relatively subdued, and, despite the pressure on purchasing power, the number of households continues to grow at a faster pace than the population. Structural demand for housing remains solid, even with the reduction in external demand in some segments.

But there is change. And this change is relevant.

Portugal is now pointed out as one of the most overvalued markets in Europe in terms of price/income ratio. Accessibility has become a central theme. Not only socially, but also economically. When prices grow persistently above yields, long-term sustainability comes into question.

At the same time, financial conditions are no longer as favourable as they have been in the past. Interest rates have stabilised, and there is little room for further short-term cuts. This takes some fuel away from the accelerated growth in prices, introducing a natural break on the market.

In the investment segment, the numbers show confidence, but also selectivity. The total volume invested grew in 2025, with a strong presence of international capital, but with an interesting return of national capital. Offices, retail and hospitality continue to attract interest, while logistics holds potential due to the scarcity of quality assets.

In residential areas, the trend of decentralisation is perhaps one of the most relevant changes. District capitals outside the major centres register significant growth. Islands and historically secondary regions gain prominence. The Portuguese market is no longer just Lisbon, Porto and the Algarve. It is more distributed, more complex and more diverse.

This is, for me, the great silent transformation. Portuguese real estate is no longer an emerging market. It is a market observed, analysed and integrated into the strategic decisions of global investors. This maturity brings stability, but also greater scrutiny.

The challenge for the coming years will be to manage this balance. Maintain trust, ensure adequate supply, preserve international competitiveness and, at the same time, respond to the issue of accessibility.

Stability exists. But so does the change. And it is precisely in this healthy tension between the two that the next chapter of real estate in Portugal will be defined.