Persistent geopolitical tensions, more fragmented global trade, demographic pressures, and climate challenges make up a demanding scenario. However, Portugal has an economic trajectory that, while prudent, is structurally sound.

GDP growth is projected to be around 2% in 2025, with a slight acceleration expected in 2026. This is not exuberant growth, but it is consistent and above the Eurozone average. Investment and private consumption continue to be the main drivers of activity, although with signs of future moderation, especially with the progressive end of the implementation of the RRP. Inflation stabilises close to 2%, unemployment remains at historically low levels, and public debt continues its downward trajectory, approaching levels that strengthen the country's external credibility.

This macroeconomic framework is particularly relevant for the real estate sector. A sustainable real estate market depends on three fundamental pillars: employment, financial stability, and institutional confidence. And these pillars are, at this moment, present.

It is true that foreign direct investment has contracted compared to the same period last year, reflecting the uncertain global environment. However, it is important to underline that the real estate and construction sectors continue to capture a very significant part of this capital. In the context of international volatility, the real estate asset asserts itself as a refuge, due to its tangibility and ability to generate stable income, as evidenced in the WMarket Review Year-End 2025-2026.

Portugal today benefits from a rare combination in the European context: continuous improvement of sovereign ratings, a labour market at historic highs and an increasingly internationally recognised qualified talent base. In addition, there is a high incorporation of renewable energies and a strategic location as an Atlantic platform.

However, there is a decisive factor that cannot be ignored: credibility. In a sensitive global environment, any regulatory or fiscal instability has an immediate impact on risk perception. Trust is an invisible asset, but absolutely decisive for attracting investment.

2026 will be, in my reading, a year of consolidation and not of accelerated expansion. And that is a good thing. Sustained growth, based on solid fundamentals, is preferable to artificial cycles driven by excessive liquidity. Economic maturity is now a competitive advantage.

The challenge now is to transform stability into structural growth, increasing productivity, accelerating productive investment, and solving critical constraints such as housing and licensing. Because, without solving these variables, the economy may grow, but it will fall short of its potential.