According to a report by the specialist publication Argus, based on data from Eurostat and the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), the disruption of supply routes in the Middle East leaves Portugal particularly vulnerable, making it the second-most-exposed European country after the United Kingdom.

Despite the seriousness of the alert, the analysis points to solutions and mitigating factors that can help the country weather this critical period, especially during the spring, through the stability of national refining, since Portugal's only refinery completed its maintenance work last year, guaranteeing a stable domestic production capacity for the coming months.

This energy security is complemented by strategic import management, because although Portugal usually resumes purchases from the Persian Gulf around May, there is still a window of opportunity for authorities to plan the replacement of suppliers or the reinforcement of strategic reserves before the impact becomes critical at the peak of summer.

However, operational optimism is tempered by criticism of the structural dependence on sensitive maritime routes, with the publication Argus highlighting that Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the main catalyst for this crisis, restricting the passage of tankers essential to the European market.

If traffic remains restricted until May, Portugal's capacity to replenish its inventories will rapidly decrease, following the trend of other countries such as Hungary (5 months), Denmark (6 months), and major powers such as Germany and Italy (7 months).

The experts' final diagnosis is clear: Portugal and Europe face an imminent shortage that requires a coordinated response.

The United Kingdom risks exhausting its kerosene in just three months, generating a domino effect on European air traffic and forcing an urgent diversification of the national supply strategy.