The conclusions rule out an immediate collapse, confirming that pension payments are technically guaranteed up to the time limit of the official analysis, thanks to a system that should continue to register surpluses in Social Security until 2034.

This financial breathing room will allow for the strengthening of the Financial Stabilisation Fund, which already represents 15% of GDP and will be vital to cover the controllable deficits projected between 2034 and 2060, a period in which the ageing population will reach its peak in terms of pressure on public spending.

However, the State's financial sustainability masks a worrying detail for future pensioners: the sharp decline in the replacement rate.

Currently, a retiree receives, on average, about 67% of their last salary, but projections indicate that this value could fall drastically to around 37% from the 2050s onwards.

Demographic transition

This reduction is due to the demographic transition and the progressive departure of beneficiaries from older schemes, such as the Caixa Geral de Aposentações (General Pension Fund), resulting in a system that, although solvent, will be significantly less generous for those retiring in thirty years.

In short, although pension spending should begin to decline after 2046 and the system foresees a return to surpluses from 2060 onwards, the real value of pensions will represent a much smaller share of working-age income.

This new demographic context reinforces the importance of individual contribution history and suggests that financial security in old age will increasingly require advance planning and longer contributory careers, since the State will guarantee payment, but at a substantially lower amount than currently.