Two months after the start of the conflict in the Middle East, the real estate market in Portugal maintains a cautious stance, without registering immediate profound impacts, but under the threat of gradual effects on the economy.

During the Portuguese Real Estate Show (2026), industry professionals highlighted that robust demand and the structural supply deficit continue to support the market, although a more considered decision-making environment is noted among buyers and investors amid this new cloud of uncertainty.

The real risk to the sector's stability lies in inflation and interest rates, as a prolonged disruption to logistics and energy chains could push up construction costs and force central banks to tighten monetary policy.

This pressure was already reflected in financial markets in March, when uncertainty caused Euribor rates to surge by one of the largest increases in the last three years, anticipating a direct worsening in the cost of housing credit and the financial burden on families.

On 30 April 2026, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain a cautious stance on key interest rates, while assessing the jump in eurozone inflation to 2.6% and new forecasts pointing to an acceleration in Portugal to 2.8% this year.

Although the sector is already experiencing a "new normal" of high costs inherited from previous conflicts, experts believe that the ability to adapt will be crucial to keeping the market active, despite a projected 1.8% GDP slowdown in 2026.